Latest Reports


Our most recent publications are summarized in the blocks below and a more complete list can be found to the right of the blocks. Please call us with any questions.

Bracing For A Kick To The PP; China PVC Strength, Methanol Weakness

We examine the US polypropylene (PP) market ahead of planned increases in US and Asia production and amid mounting propylene supply.
We discuss increases in China polyvinyl chloride (PVC) spot values since the start of the week and comment to developments in the methanol market.
Other items of note range from commentary on propane, to length in butadiene, to our keeping an eye on USGC tropical storm Cristobal.

Positive Sentiment Gains Steam With Crude – Most 2H20 Sector Headwinds Remain Stiff

Brent Crude Oil prices are rising relative to natural gas values – a plus for the US chemical industry and likely to quicken production restarts into 2H20.
We provide takeaways from the Braskem 1Q20 release and earnings call – we discuss management Q&A comments about petrochemical oversupply.
Other items of note today range from oil-and-gas commentary, to efforts to re-shore some US supply chains, to the May US ethylene contract settlement.

When The Levee Breaks – US Methanol Margin Pressure Inevitable

USGC per unit methanol margins have faced downward pressure since March – we see more downward pressure ahead and present our argument.
Other commodity items discussed today include US polyethylene contract nominations for June and a sizable USGC 2H20 polypropylene addition.
Other items of note today range from oil-and-gas commentary, to multiple supply chain items worth note, to China demand lagging expectations.

Global Chemical Update – The Chain Gang 

Asia monomer shifts tell a broadly different story than derivative trends. The more obvious explanation points to olefin plant shutdowns in Asia rather than a major bump in consumption
We discuss shifts in global integrated margins, vinyls and methanol WoW.

Hoping for Normal; Planning for Not Normal

We focus on news we have seen and ideas that have developed over the last couple of weeks and factor in comments that are emerging as thoughtful companies address uncertainty and a possible new normal.

Something’s Gotta Give – Asia Monomer Values Are Misaligned With Derivative Fundamentals

Asia polymer price trends on average do not support the industry case that recent upticks in ethylene and propylene are demand driven, per our model.
We take a positive view of PVC relative to other polymer chains (notably PE & PP), find Asia propylene values decline WoW from an 11-week high amid greater supply, and note VAM as another ethylene derivative chain unable to push through higher raw material costs due to lackluster demand.
Other items of note today range from oil-and-gas commentary, to Dow comments on the PE markets and the need for clarity on US/China trade to invest in megaprojects, to Nissan motor estimated vehicle production cuts.